Gold in May… and after the Fed

May God’s peace, grace and mercy be upon you

Thank God for wisdom and knowledge

April ended on a positive note and the rise was supported by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East (the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus and the Iranian response).

In contrast to the economic data, the volume of flows was also supported, most of which came in favor of the dollar, the most important of which was an increase for the fourth month in a row, followed by a rise in jobs and a one-month decline.

Regional overview of trade volume for March

North American funds added $360 million in March and North America led exits in the first quarter of 2024, with total assets under management in the region rising to $112 billion, the highest level since June 2022.

Demand for ETFs improved further in Germany, attracting inflows for the first time in 5 months.

European funds have so far withdrawn USD 2.9 billion in 2024

Asia recorded the thirteenth straight month of inflows, attracting US$217 million in March, with China leading the inflows, resulting in a rise.

Asian funds added US$678 million in the first quarter of 2024, with a 7% increase in shares and a 14% increase in assets under management, with Japan also posting positive inflows.

Holdings of Gold ETFs by Region

Gold supply and demand statistics

The most important thing that came in April was the change in economic data

1- Increase in rate of increase

36 thousand in estimation

29 thousand from the previous one

2- Very little decrease in registrations

4k less than my estimate

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8 thousand more than before

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3- Decrease in monthly unemployment rate

0.1% of previous estimate

4- Increase in monthly core consumer price index

0.1% of assessment

5- Increase in annual consumer price index

0.1% of assessment

0.3% over previous

6- Decrease in monthly producer price index

0.1% of assessment

0.4% from previous

7- (First quarter)

0.9% of assessment

1.8% over previous

8-year increase in core personal consumption expenditure index

Estimated 0.2%

9- A significant change in the effectiveness of monitoring interest rates after the series of data presented in the last month.

Interest rate monitoring tool

Gold numbers in April

Gold shape

The monthly high is 2431

2228 monthly minimum

The city was opened in 2233

2286 monthly result

Monthly Motor Rate 1.76%

The average price is $203

Monthly Upward Revision Rate 103%

Monthly downward revision rate -3%

Actual rate of increase is 53%.

The upward revision rate from highest to lowest trough on an annualized basis is 447%.

Year-on-year highest peak-to-downward correction rate of 145%

Monthly Trade Volume: 766.4k

Volume of Open Trade: 67%

Volume of closed trades: 33%

Gold movement on our weekly scale as stated in the April 1st article

Based on the inverse and direct relationships of the factors affecting the price of gold according to the law of price elasticity of demand

1- Increase in income US Treasuries (April)

Where I reached:

US02Y: %0.405

US05Y: %0,498

US10Y: %0.478

US20Y: %0,442

US30Y: %0.436

According to the mathematical equation

2425 is important on the upside

2151 level is crucial for decline

2- decrease Oil Price (April)

$1.63 low rate

Daily Operating Rate 0.06%

According to the mathematical equation

2383 is important on the upside

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2199 is crucial for a decline

3- A hike Dollar Index (April)

The increase reached 1.76%

Daily Operating Rate 0.022%

According to the mathematical equation

2336 level is important on the upside

2248 level is crucial for decline

Movement of the dollar index

Most Important Positions for May

The relative position of gold for May 2190

Minimum multiple levels for May 2361

Maximum multiple levels for May 2147

The total monthly position is 2471

Overall level to decrease in monthly 2111

The monthly average is 2329

Conclusion on technical analysis for the month of May

Good targets are for gold to breach the 2336 level, hold steady and close the weekly candle above the level.

2383

2425

2471

Gold breaking the 2248 level and holding and closing the weekly candle below the level are bearish targets.

2199

2151

2111

Support and resistance levels for this month on the weekly chart

A temporal and mathematical perspective

As we mentioned earlier, the general trend of gold is up until the price trades above the 2275 level, which is the lower part of the daily correction.

But both conditions were met in a short-term downward correction

The first is not to create a new summit

The second is the correction from 2291 (which is the corona level of the lower part of the correction at 2275), and the corona was tested a second time yesterday at 2281.

Therefore, there is an amendment in this sub-section 2275

If this week’s candlestick closes below the 2275 level, the first wave of a deep correction will unfold between the 2222-2147 levels.

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2359 Status will not be retested.

If gold is content to correct from the halo at the lower end of the correction on the daily, three consecutive candlestick closes above the 2359 level are necessary to form a new high at 2513.

Mathematical view of motion

Important note friend

This analysis is a technical, mathematical and fundamental analysis based on economic data and reports, and is far removed from the tensions and events that occur and may occur in the world, as it is certainly known to everyone about the movements of gold. For the strength of the message.

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This analysis is a personal opinion and has nothing to do with a recommendation to buy or sell

Have a good week everyone

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